Case Studies

Financial Planning and Scenario Analytics, including Exogenous Factors

Posted by | Fuld & Company

The CFO of a leading lubricants manufacturing company was looking for more accurate methods of financial planning to better invest the company’s cash and reduce operational costs.


To identify cost and revenue drivers and create a forecasting model that could reduce the current prediction error (vs. actuals) from ~8% to less than 5%.


  • Conducted workshops with key client stakeholders to identify major parameters that impacted demand and sales, and understand clients’ current business models.
  • Collected internal time-series data, such as wholesale and retail sales and volume, number of active product SKUs, number of manufacturing lines, production capacity utilization, number of warehouses, warehouse utilization, inventory, product returns, and destroyed in field.
  • Collected key data related to external factors such as forex rates for USD, oil and gas prices, and other commodity prices.
  • Tested various econometric models, such as SARIMAX, VAR, and LSTM, to identify the best-fit model; produced 3-, 6-, and 12-month forecasts while minimizing RMSE.


The company improved forecasting accuracy by better understanding the key drivers of its sales and operational costs, and reducing the prediction error rate to 3.7%.

Algorithms Used: Econometric models such as SARIMAX, VAR, and LSTM



Tags: , , , , ,

Related Resources

Read More

Sustainable innovation in the polymer industry

Delivering sustainable innovation How we helped a leading industrial polymer manufacturer cut 1.5 years off its R&D timeline… and win […]

Read More

Leveraging Machine Learning in Customer Sentiment Analysis

In a highly competitive market, staying ahead of customer expectations is critical for any manufacturer. A leading US plumbing fixture […]

Read More

Healthcare and Pharma Competitive Intelligence Dashboard

A US-based healthcare company wanted to explore its options for a clinical drug development strategy that would minimize its time […]

Subscribe to our mailing list for our latest updates: