​Fact-Check Scorecard: How Accurate was Fuld’s 2025 Energy Outlook?

Energy outlooks shape billions of dollars in capital allocation, policy direction, and competitive strategy.

In Fuld’s 2025 Energy Outlook article I made a series of confident predictions about electricity demand, renewables, nuclear power, hydrogen, grid resilience, and industry consolidation. Some are already playing out as forecast. Others are proving more nuanced—or more optimistic—than reality allows.

In this article, I’ve fact-checked each major claim using authoritative, up-to-date sources including the IEA, EIA, Ember, and leading industry reports. Each claim is evaluated against verifiable data available through December 2025 and scored using a transparent methodology:

• Accurate: Fully supported by evidence
• Partially accurate: Broadly directionally correct but with notable caveats, overstatements, or regional mismatches.
• Inaccurate: Contradicted by available data

The scorecard below summarizes our findings, assigns a numerical score to each claim (3 points for Accurate, 2 for Partially Accurate, 1 for Inaccurate), and provides concise evidence-based explanations with inline citations. We’ll let you decide on how well I’ve done in my predictions!

Overall result:
The scorecard below summarizes each claim, assigns a score (3 points for Accurate, 2 for Partially Accurate, 1 for Inaccurate), provides a brief explanation with evidence, and includes inline citations where applicable.

Total score: 18 / 21 = ~85.7%

Claim/Prediction 1:

Electricity is becoming the world’s most critical commodity.

• Natural gas growth
• Cautious EV investments

Accuracy Score:
Accurate 3

Accuracy explanation:
Electricity’s role is central, with IEA noting its share rising from 20% to over 50% of final energy by 2050 in net-zero scenarios, driven by EVs (25% expected global sales growth in 2025) and data centers (load growth doubling/tripling by 2028).

China dominates EVs (70% global production) and batteries, expanding internationally despite tariffs. AI integration for grid management is widespread, optimizing renewables and demand.

Globally, natural gas led fossil supply gains in 2024-2025 alongside renewables, per IEA, due to flexibility. However, in Europe, gas power declined (e.g., EU diversified away from Russia, substituting 75% of imports; overall consumption fell post-2022 invasion).

Confirmed trend: Exxon advanced lithium projects (e.g., Arkansas appraisals, part of $20B low-carbon spend through 2030). Aramco formed JV with Ma’aden for lithium extraction and boosted investments to diversify. Focus on minerals over EV infra due to supply chain priorities.

Claim/Prediction 2:
Wind and solar will continue to grow and work together to provide a viable clean electricity solution

• Hydropower as a renewable alternative to wind and solar

Accuracy Score:
Accurate 3

Accuracy explanation:
Solar and wind (combined variable renewables) overtook coal for the first time on record in the first half of 2025, with renewables overall (including hydro, etc.) generating more than coal during that period.

Solar and wind together provided about 17% of global electricity in 2025 (up from ~15% in 2024), while coal remained around 33-35%, natural gas ~20-25%, hydro ~14%, and nuclear ~9%.

Claim/Prediction 3:

Nuclear and geothermal will challenge wind and solar for dominance in low-carbon energy

• Nuclear’s comeback 
• Geothermal energy expansion 
• Carbon sequestration integration 

Accuracy Score:
Almost accurate 2.5

Accuracy explanation:
Although SMRs did not grow as fast as was forecasted, 2025 was a pivotal year for nuclear energy’s revival, driven by policy shifts, technological progress, and escalating global energy demands.

Governments, particularly in the US, accelerated nuclear support through executive actions. In May 2025, President Trump signed orders to “usher in a nuclear renaissance,” including streamlining licensing, expanding the domestic fuel supply chain, and targeting a quadrupling of US capacity to 400 GW by 2050. Ontario approved its first SMR in May 2025, while designs like NuScale and Oklo (backed by Sam Altman) advanced, with Oklo up 600% post-IPO. Experts emphasized SMRs’ passive safety features, reducing risks compared to traditional reactors.

Global geothermal investment accelerated dramatically. North America (led by the US) attracted $1.7 billion in public funding in Q1 2025 alone—85% of the entire 2024 total and a record high. Equity funding reached $78 million in H1, with total sector investments on track for 20% annual growth through 2030. Major rounds included Fervo Energy’s $462 million Series E (December 2025) to scale its Cape Station project (world’s largest next-gen geothermal, targeting 500 MW in Utah).

Claim/Prediction 4:

Hydrogen could spark the next energy arms race

• Hydrogen’s role in heavy industry 
• China’s leadership in PEM electrolyzers
• China leads the global market in Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, driving rapid cost reductions similar to those seen in solar PV and battery production.
• Blue hydrogen investments 

Accuracy Score:
Accurate 3

Accuracy explanation:
China’s investments in electrolyzers have started paying off. China currently holds 60% of manufacturing (PEM/AWE); prices fell 40% (2022-2024) via subsidies/scale, closing gap with West – now fraction of costs. Installed: 0.8 GW (2023), 9 GW FID. China has begun exporting electrolyzers to Europe.

Blue Hydrogen investment increased significantly in 2025, particularly in the United States, where it emerged as the dominant focus for low-carbon hydrogen amid policy shifts favoring natural gas-based production with carbon capture and storage (CCS). This surge contrasted with slower progress in green hydrogen (electrolysis from renewables), which faced challenges like regulatory uncertainty, competition for renewable power (e.g., from AI/data centers), and fewer final investment decisions (FIDs).

Key Evidence of Increased Investment in 2025

• US Leadership and FID Surge: Analysts (e.g., Wood Mackenzie) predicted and confirmed a “surge in blue hydrogen investment,” with at least three large-scale projects reaching FID in 2025, representing over 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of capacity – roughly 10x more than green hydrogen FIDs. This positioned the US to become the world’s leading blue hydrogen producer.
• Major Project Announcements and Funding:

• Linde’s $1.8 billion blue hydrogen facility in Beaumont, Texas (supplying OCI Global’s blue ammonia plant, with >1.7 million tonnes CO₂ sequestered annually; production starting 2025).
• Lake Charles Methanol II: $5 billion investment in Louisiana for ~500,000 tonnes/year blue hydrogen (converted to blue methanol; financial close and construction start in 2025).
• CF Industries’ Blue Point project and others advanced, with billions in capital committed.
• Additional deals, like ExxonMobil/Marubeni offtake agreements and Aramco’s stake acquisitions in blue hydrogen ventures.

Claim/Prediction 5:
Energy sector consolidation is reshaping the competitive landscape, which will favor larger players

• Industry consolidation 
• IOCs’ targeted acquisitions 
• Non-core divestments 

Accuracy Score:
Partially accurate 2

Accuracy explanation:
Oil and gas sector did not see major consolidations like 2024. 2024 was a record year for mega-consolidations in upstream oil and gas, especially in the US shale (Permian Basin focus). Total US M&A value reached ~$206-207 billion (up 331% from 2023), fueled by blockbuster deals like ExxonMobil-Pioneer (~$60B), Chevron-Hess, ConocoPhillips-Marathon Oil, Diamondback-Endeavor Energy (~$26B), and others. This dramatically reduced the number of major independent players (e.g., top public E&Ps shrank from 50 to 40 by mid-2025 per EY).

2025 saw a slowdown in sheer volume of mega-deals (expected post-2024 wave) and a pivot toward gas-weighted, mid-market, and opportunistic acquisitions. However, activity remained robust:

• Global upstream M&A pipeline was ~$150 billion early in the year, with H1 2025 showing strong gas-related deals (e.g., EOG-Encino Acquisition Partners at $5.6B, EQT-Olympus Energy at $1.8B).

IOCs however continued to divest from non-core projects and assets.

• Many early-stage hydrogen projects have been abandoned or put on hold across the industry. Financial Times analysis reported ~60 major low-carbon hydrogen projects – including those involving BP and ExxonMobil – were cancelled or paused in 2025 due to economic headwinds and weak demand.
• Global trends show scaled-back investment in green hydrogen overall as elevated costs and weak market pull-through make projects less viable.

BP: Retreat from Renewables & Hydrogen

• BP has cut planned investment in renewables significantly, doubling down on traditional oil and gas spending instead.
• Reuters reported BP slowed or halted multiple hydrogen/clean-tech initiatives, cut hydrogen teams, and considered sales of renewable assets.
• BP also abandoned a 2030 oil-output cut target – a shift interpreted as a broader pivot away from aggressive energy transition goals.
• Shell: Scaling Back Transition Businesses. Shell has scaled back low-carbon operations (including some offshore wind and hydrogen initiatives) and retreated from certain power/renewables markets.
• While Shell still maintains some investments, its approach has become more selective and returns-focused instead of broad renewable expansion.

Equinor: Cutting Renewables Spend

• Norway’s Equinor halved planned renewable energy investments, opting to prioritize oil & gas production instead.

U.S. Majors (ExxonMobil & Chevron): Focus on Core Business

• S. majors have broadly focused capital on high-return core assets (Permian, LNG, oil exploration) with less emphasis on broad renewable deployment.
• ExxonMobil’s public plans emphasize lower-emissions tech (like CCS) and returns but do not pivot significantly into utility-scale renewables.

Claim/Prediction 6:
Interconnected grids will become the Achilles’ heel of global energy systems

• Grid-level storage demand
• Grid overloads
• Market distortions

Accuracy Score:
Accurate 3

Accuracy explanation:
The cost of storing daytime solar power for use as anytime electricity has dropped to $65/MWh in 2025, according to new analysis from Ember. The think tank said utility-scale battery storage costs outside China and the US have continued to fall sharply this year following a steep decline in 2024. The research assesses full system costs at $125/kWh for long-duration grid-connected batteries and notes that core equipment delivered from China now costs around 75$/kWh.

In 2025, multiple major grid failures and stress events highlighted rising power-system fragility: Chile suffered a near-nationwide blackout after a transmission protection failure, Spain and Portugal experienced one of Europe’s worst blackouts due to system instability, Brazil and the Dominican Republic saw wide-area outages from substation and transmission failures, while in the United States soaring heat and data-center-driven demand pushed grids like PJM into emergency conditions, forcing load shedding in places such as Maryland to avoid full system collapse.

Claim/Prediction 7:
Renewables alone won’t be enough to power the future

• Intermittency challenges 
• Storage solutions 
• Fossil fuels

Accuracy Score:
Partially accurate 1.5

Accuracy explanation:
Intermittency has not been shown to be the sole direct cause of major blackouts; most such events involve multiple technical and operational failures. For example, detailed investigations of the Iberian blackout found cascades related to system protection actions in addition to the effects of variable generation. In the April 2025 Iberian blackout, Spain and Portugal were generating very high shares of power from solar and wind when the grid experienced instability; experts pointed to low system inertia and high penetration of variable renewables as contributors to the difficulty in maintaining frequency and voltage stability.

Fossil fuel investment in 2025 is flat to lower compared with 2024 (especially in upstream oil & gas) and has not increased as a share of total energy investment.

Clean energy investment continues to outpace fossil fuels, growing faster and capturing a larger share of total capital flows.